Date: Fri, 31 Jul 1998 16:49:48 +0100

From: "Richard Garfield" <garfieratcuson-sph.cpmc.columbia.edu>

I am analyzing changes in mortality in Iraq over the last 25 years. There

are reliable data from census and use of indirect methods through 1991.

Since 1991, almost all of the independent, representative data one can for

malnutrition levels, not under one or under five mortality per se. I would

like to project likely mortality rates: I have is good information on

education, income, water, and medical care, and many studies from which to

generate reliable estimates of weight-for-age, height-for-age, and

weight-for-age. A simple correlation to known levels of under-one and

under-five mortality in countries with similar levels of malnutrition and

known mortality rates is possible, but given the influence of all the other

factors influencing mortality it is of questionable validity. Does anyone

know of any validated approaches to dealing with this problem?

Richard Garfield, Columbia University

rmg3atcolumbia.edu

From: "John Woodall" <WOODALLatSERVER.BIOQMED.UFRJ.BR>

Tue, 4 Aug 1998 15:27:53 GMT-3

Subject: Re: changes in mortality in Iraq

Richard:

1] Your request is very difficult to follow because of missing words,

see **** below.

2] I was working the Iraq desk at WHO Geneva during part of 1991.

Forget about trying to project anything for Iraq since the Gulf

War. A Harvard group went out there soon after and were snowed by

lousy data fed them by the locals. Don't trust ANY data from there

collected since the war.

Dr Jack Woodall, Director, ProMED-mail

Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro

Rio de Janeiro - RJ, Brazil

<woodallatbioqmed.ufrj.br>